CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-07T18:24:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Jan 09 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40109
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 09 Jan 2014, 1201UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 09 Jan 2014 until 11 Jan 2014)
SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Severe magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 170 / AP: 073
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 075
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2014 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 031
COMMENT: Three C flares occurred since our last bulletin. Two flares
originated from NOAA AR 1944 (Catania sunspot group 98) and one from NOAA
AR 1946 (Catania sunspot group 97). NOAA AR 1944 showed signs of decay in
size, but is still strongly connected to neighbouring regions NOAA AR 1946
and 1943. More flaring activity is possible from these regions within the
next 48 hours. Chances for C flares are 70%, for M flares 50% and X flares
20%. Two coronal holes are currently located at the central meridian, one
between -15 and +20 degrees latitude and one between 25 and 60 degrees
latitude. A high speed stream might be reaching the Earth from late January
10 and early January 11 (UTC time) on. No additional Earth directed CMEs
were detected. The proton flux is still very high for >10MeV protons, but
decreasing. It reached a maximum value of around 1000 sfu and now has a
value near 300 sfu. The proton event is expected to continue for the next
few hours. The proton flux for >50 and >100MeV protons is currently below
the event threshold. Proton fluxes might rise again in case of major
flares. Solar wind measurements show no signs of the expected arrival yet
of the CME of January 9. Solar wind speed has risen to a maximum near 500
km/s and currently has a value of 400 km/s. The magnitude of the
interplanetary magnetic field is fluctuating between 0 and 9 nT. The Bz-
component achieves values in the ranges from -8 to +6 nT. Minor to
severe storm (K=5 to 8) conditions are expected, due to arrival of the CME
of January 7. Aurorae might be seen at higher latitudes on January 9 until
the noon of January 10 under clear sky conditions. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to stay near K=4 to 5 due to the arrival of a coronal hole
high speed stream on January 11.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 074, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 08 Jan 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 117
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 195
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013
AK WINGST : 007
ESTIMATED AP : 007
ESTIMATED ISN : 082, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END
BT
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:Issued: 2014 Jan 08 0502 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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A halo CME was associated with the X1.3 proton flare of January 7.
SOHO/LASCO-C2 observed an asymmetric halo CME with first measurement at 18:24 UTC. The main direction of propagation is to the southwest. The event was also observed in SOHO/LASCO-C3, STEREO A/COR2 and (partly in) STEREO B/COR2 imagery data.
The event was combined with a type II radio burst, EUV wave and a large dimming region. The shock speed from radio spectrographs was estimated at 1064 km/s (Sagamore Hill).
Based on time/height measurements of SOHO/LASCO data the initial CME speed is estimated at 2353 km/s. Estimates based on Stereoscopy provide an estimate of around 1900 km/s. Using the DBM propagation model with a different speed values at 20 solar radii of 1800 to 2300 km/s, the arrival time of this CME is estimated on January 9 between 2:00 and 7:00 UTC. Minor to severe storm (K=5 to 7) conditions are expected. 
In the meantime, the proton event continues. The proton flux is still rising for the > 10MeV and >50MeV protons and is starting to decline for >100MeV protons. The current value for >10MeV protons is around 700 sfu.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium #
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